Disease epidemics affecting forests and trees are now seen as major threats to biodiversity, landscapes and ecosystem function. Compared to diseases affecting livestock or agricultural crops, where acute but usually short-lived ecological and economic impacts can be addressed by established control measures, the impact of forest diseases is often cumulative, long term and difficult to control. ‘Sudden Oak Death’ (SOD) is an emerging forest disease and its recent appearance in host species in the UK has raised concern that a wide range of tree types in this country may now be at risk. This project draws on archival research and interviews directly involved in the outbreak of Dutch Elm Disease (DED) in the 1970s to reconstruct the progress of the disease across the UK and subsequent (failed) attempts to deal with it. It uses modelling and reconstructive photographic techniques to compare this trajectory with the possible future spread of SOD under a number of alternative management scenarios. Focussing on a small number of case studies, the research further visualises the landscape implications of varying degrees of infection, impact and spread for SOD. These visualisations are used to explore public memory of DED and perception of risk from SOD. The project concludes with a stakeholder jury enquiry charged with reaching verdicts on the lessons of DED and the likelihood and manageability of a future outbreak of SOD.



.pdf

Full research report

Author: Clive Potter Date: Thursday, December 23, 2010 Full research report

.pdf

Non-technical summary

Author: Clive Potter Date: Thursday, December 23, 2010 Research summary

Dutch elm disease revisited : past, present and future management in Great Britain

Author: Thomas Harwood Date: Thursday, November 18, 2010 Journal article

Networks in plant epidemiology : from genes to landscapes, countries and continents

Author: Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre Date: Thursday, November 18, 2010 Journal article

Learning from history, predicting the future : the UK Dutch elm disease outbreak in relation to contemporary tree disease threats

Author: Clive Potter Date: Thursday, November 18, 2010 Journal article

Unveiling human-assisted dispersal mechanisms in invasive alien insects: integration of spatial stochastic simulation and phenology models

Author: Luis Roman Carrasco Date: Friday, January 1, 2010 Journal article

Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks : the role of hierarchical categories.

Author: Marco Pautasso Date: Friday, January 1, 2010 Journal article

‘Too little, too late’? : science, policy and Dutch elm disease in the UK

Author: Isobel Tomlinson Date: Friday, January 1, 2010 Journal article

Review of joint inter-departmental emergency programme to contain and eradicate phytophthora ramorum and phytophthora kernoviae in Great Britain

Author: Isobel Tomlinson Date: Thursday, January 1, 2009 Technical report

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling : Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

Author: Thomas Harwood Date: Thursday, January 1, 2009 Journal article

The circular definition of populations and its implications for biological sampling

Author: Thomas Harwood Date: Thursday, January 1, 2009 Journal article

Start date
Friday, August 31, 2007
End date
Monday, August 30, 2010
Grant holder
Dr Clive Potter
Co-applicants
Dr Simon Leather
Dr Jonathan Knight
Dr Alan MacLeod
Dr Susana Mourato
Dr Joan Webber
Grant amount
$479,053.27
Grant reference
RES-229-25-0005
Discipline
Environmental Planning
Grant type